GLA: Interim 2015-based population projections

Created 2 years ago, updated 2 years ago

From January 2017 the GLA has revised its naming convention for it's population projections. Projections will now be labelled based on the latest mid-year estimate data which informs the projection. As such this set of projections is a 2015-based projection.

This set of projections is labelled ‘interim’ in anticipation of a revised set of 2015-based projections which will inform the London Plan. Once released, in spring 2017, those projections will supersede this set.

Four variants of local authority level population projections, one ward-level projection and one msoa-level projection are currenty available:

 

Borough

  • Central Trend-based projection (using a 10-year migration scenario)
  • Short-term Trend-based projection (using a 5-year migration scenario) 
  • Long-term Trend-based projection (using a 14-year migration scenario)
  • Housing-linked projection incorporating data from the 2013 SHLAA (consistent with the central trend model)

 

Small Area

  • Ward-level projections consistent with the borough housing-led model
  • MSOA-level projections consistent with the borough housing-led model

 

Documentation

Methodology papers for all of the projections are availble on the documentation page for this dataset.

Reults Updates for the Trend and Housing-led projections are available on the documentation page.

A series of ward projection profiles are also available to dowload.

 

Notes

A tool detailing the relationships between the various projections and variants can be found here.

These projections make no attempt to account for the UK's exit from the European Union.

spreadsheet
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01/01/2012
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31/12/2041
Interim 2015-based central trend population projection
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From
01/01/2012
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31/12/2041
Detailed components and other outputs from the central trend projection
spreadsheet
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01/01/2012
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31/12/2041
Interim 2015-based long-term trend population projection
zip
From
01/01/2012
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31/12/2041
Detailed components and other outputs from the long-term trend projection
spreadsheet
From
01/01/2012
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31/12/2041
Interim 2015-based short-term trend population projection
zip
From
01/01/2012
To
31/12/2041
Detailed components and other outputs from the short-term trend projection
spreadsheet
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01/01/2012
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31/12/2041
Housing-led borough-level projection. Incorporates assumed development from the 2013 SHLAA. Consistent at the London level with the central trend projection.
spreadsheet
From
01/01/2012
To
31/12/2041
MSOA-level housing-led projection incorporating assumed development from the 2013 SHLAA. Consistent at borough level with the housing-led projection.
spreadsheet
From
01/01/2012
To
31/12/2041
Ward-level housing-led projection incorporating assumed development from the 2013 SHLAA. Consistent at borough level with the housing-led projection.